Pension scheme buy-in volumes are forecast to reach between £40bn and £55bn in 2026, according to LCP.
The consultancy said that record volumes of £55bn could be achieved this year due to insurers reporting a strong pipeline of transactions.
The current record volume of pension scheme buy-ins stands at £49.1bn, which was set in 2023.
LCP said that, for the top end of its estimate to be achieved, there would need to be a continuation of the attractive insurer pricing that is currently available and was seen over the past year.
It added that 2025 volumes are expected to exceed £40bn once insurers’ full-year results are published in March.
Further merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has also been forecast following a busy 2025.
Three of the 11 insurers in the bulk annuity market announced acquisitions by international insurers last year, with PIC being acquired by Athora, Just Group by Brookfield, and Utmost’s life and pensions business by JAB Insurance.
All three of these acquisitions are expected to be completed in the first half of 2026.
LCP anticipated continued M&A interest from overseas investors this year, driven by the scale, maturity, and asset inflows into the UK bulk annuity market.
Outlining other focuses and trends in the bulk annuity landscape this year, LCP said member service would be a key focus as insurers continue to invest in administration platforms and digital capability.
It predicted that all active insurers would be able to offer members online benefit modellers by the end of the year, and that more than 150,000 scheme members would be moved to buyout and receive individual annuity policies during 2026.
Beyond 2026, LCP anticipated continued diversification in alternative endgame options and that technology would become a defining feature of the marketplace, allowing insurers to produce quotations more quickly and at a lower cost, and streamline and standardise due diligence processes.
“The UK buy-in market continues to demonstrate remarkable depth and strength alongside an expanding range of wider endgame options,” commented LCP partner, Charlie Finch.
“Our forecast of £40bn-£55bn of buy-ins in 2026 reflects robust funding levels and a substantial pipeline of deals, supported by highly competitive insurer pricing.
“The strategic acquisitions of insurers last year should give schemes confidence in the depth of long-term investor backing for the market, reinforcing competition and driving continued innovation over the rest of the decade.”
LCP partner, Imogen Cothay, added: “The market is increasingly evolving to meet the needs of pension schemes and their members. Insurers are investing heavily in technology, with administration and member experience being a strategic priority.
“This will benefit schemes of all sizes, with more efficient journeys to buyout, and a boost in online functionality for members as digital engagement becomes the norm.”